Marketers must make the best decisions based on the information presented to them. Rarely will they have all the information necessary to predict what consumers will do with complete certainty. By incorporating uncertainty into the decisions that they make, they can anticipate a wide range of possible outcomes and recognize the extent of uncertainty on the decisions that they make. In Incorporating Uncertainty into Marketing Decisions, learners will become familiar with different methods to recognize sources of uncertainty that may affect the marketing decisions they ultimately make. We eschew specialized software and provide learners with the foundational knowledge they need to develop sophisticated marketing models in a basic spreadsheet environment. Topics include the development and application of Monte Carlo simulations, and the use of probability distributions to characterize uncertainty.
Ce cours fait partie de la Spécialisation Foundations of Marketing Analytics
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Spécialisation Foundations of Marketing AnalyticsUniversité EmoryÀ propos de ce cours
Offert par
Université Emory
Emory University, located in Atlanta, Georgia, is one of the world's leading research universities. Its mission is to create, preserve, teach and apply knowledge in the service of humanity.
Programme de cours : ce que vous apprendrez dans ce cours
Randomness and Probability
Module 1 focuses on developing an understanding where randomness appears in marketing problems. You will learn basic rules for calculating the probability of outcomes. We will also examine how these rules can be applied to determine the value of information
Conducting Monte Carlo Simulations in Excel
Building on the basics of randomness and probability discussed in Module 1, we examine the use of Monte Carlo simulations for incorporating randomness into business problems. Using Microsoft Excel, we will build a tool that conducts a Monte Carlo simulation. We will use this tool to evaluate the best course of action for a particular business problem.
Using Probability Distributions to Model Uncertainty
In Module 3, we look at the use of probability distributions as a means of characterizing uncertainty. We initially look at how uncertainty is incorporated into a general decision making framework. We then turn our attention to different probability distributions that can be used to model uncertainty, depending on the nature of the data. We examine the application of these probability distributions to assess the likelihood of events using features within Microsoft Excel.
Application: Designing Extended Service Warranty Plans
Building the the discussion of probability distributions in Module 3, we apply this knowledge to a specific application: the design of extended service warranty plans. We provide an overview of the business problem and discuss how to incorporate uncertainty in customers' use of the warranty plan using the Poisson distribution. Using Microsoft Excel, we design a spreadsheet tool that enables a user to adjust features of the service plans. By comparing firm profit under different scenarios, we investigate how different features of the service plan result in risk being shared by the consumer and the firm.
Avis
- 5 stars53,22Â %
- 4 stars30,64Â %
- 3 stars8,06Â %
- 2 stars3,22Â %
- 1 star4,83Â %
Meilleurs avis pour MANAGING UNCERTAINTY IN MARKETING ANALYTICS
In one word: USEFUL. And that is a lot these days. I use the concepts (and excel tools) everyday!
Just as other courses in the series, this course offers hands-on experience with statistical analysis and many opportunities to apply acquired learnings in practice.
Great course with very applicable skills for professional or personal life.
The instructor instructions were very brief for the assignments and tests. The questions in the test were very difficult to understand as to what answer is required.
À propos du Spécialisation Foundations of Marketing Analytics
In this specialization you will learn how to:
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