Marketers must make the best decisions based on the information presented to them. Rarely will they have all the information necessary to predict what consumers will do with complete certainty. By incorporating uncertainty into the decisions that they make, they can anticipate a wide range of possible outcomes and recognize the extent of uncertainty on the decisions that they make. In Incorporating Uncertainty into Marketing Decisions, learners will become familiar with different methods to recognize sources of uncertainty that may affect the marketing decisions they ultimately make. We eschew specialized software and provide learners with the foundational knowledge they need to develop sophisticated marketing models in a basic spreadsheet environment. Topics include the development and application of Monte Carlo simulations, and the use of probability distributions to characterize uncertainty.
Ce cours fait partie de la Spécialisation Foundations of Marketing Analytics
Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics
proposé par
Programme du cours : ce que vous apprendrez dans ce cours
Semaine
1Randomness and Probability
Module 1 focuses on developing an understanding where randomness appears in marketing problems. You will learn basic rules for calculating the probability of outcomes. We will also examine how these rules can be applied to determine the value of information
3 videos (Total 40 min), 2 lectures, 1 quiz
3 vidéos
Applications of Randomness & Probability12 min
Assessing the Value of Information14 min
2 lectures
How Customer Analytics is Speeding the Cure for Parkinson's10 min
Data Driven Donor Management24 min
1 exercice pour s'entraîner
Module 115 min
Semaine
2Conducting Monte Carlo Simulations in Excel
Building on the basics of randomness and probability discussed in Module 1, we examine the use of Monte Carlo simulations for incorporating randomness into business problems. Using Microsoft Excel, we will build a tool that conducts a Monte Carlo simulation. We will use this tool to evaluate the best course of action for a particular business problem.
1 video (Total 33 min), 4 lectures, 1 quiz
1 vidéo
4 lectures
Inventory Exercise for Excel Demonstration10 min
Explained: Monte Carlo Simulation10 min
How Our 2016 MLB Predictions Work10 min
The Advantages of Monte Carlo Simulations10 min
Semaine
3Using Probability Distributions to Model Uncertainty
In Module 3, we look at the use of probability distributions as a means of characterizing uncertainty. We initially look at how uncertainty is incorporated into a general decision making framework. We then turn our attention to different probability distributions that can be used to model uncertainty, depending on the nature of the data. We examine the application of these probability distributions to assess the likelihood of events using features within Microsoft Excel.
5 videos (Total 51 min), 1 lecture, 1 quiz
5 vidéos
Properties of Random Variables8 min
Steps in Using Probability Functions10 min
Normal Distribution & Other Probability Models10 min
Warnings in Modeling Uncertainty6 min
1 lecture
Employee Yield Worksheet10 min
1 exercice pour s'entraîner
Module 310 min
Semaine
4Application: Designing Extended Service Warranty Plans
Building the the discussion of probability distributions in Module 3, we apply this knowledge to a specific application: the design of extended service warranty plans. We provide an overview of the business problem and discuss how to incorporate uncertainty in customers' use of the warranty plan using the Poisson distribution. Using Microsoft Excel, we design a spreadsheet tool that enables a user to adjust features of the service plans. By comparing firm profit under different scenarios, we investigate how different features of the service plan result in risk being shared by the consumer and the firm.
4 videos (Total 58 min), 4 lectures, 1 quiz
4 vidéos
Company Constraints & Decisions6 min
Questions to Investigate7 min
Extended Service Warranty Excel Exercise34 min
4 lectures
Should You Get An Extended Warranty?10 min
Don't Buy Extended Warranties10 min
Designing Extended Warranty Plans - Instructions & Excel Spreadsheet10 min
Poisson Distribution Excel Sheet10 min
4.2
4 avisMeilleurs avis
par JP•Jun 13th 2017
In one word: USEFUL. And that is a lot these days. I use the concepts (and excel tools) everyday!
par SI•Jun 5th 2017
Great course with very applicable skills for professional or personal life.
Enseignant
David Schweidel
Associate Professor of MarketingGoizueta Business School
À propos de Emory University
Emory University, located in Atlanta, Georgia, is one of the world's leading research universities. Its mission is to create, preserve, teach and apply knowledge in the service of humanity.
À propos de la Spécialisation Foundations of Marketing Analytics
In this specialization you will learn how to:
• Find, extract, organize and describe data to support business decisions
• Identify, quantify and interpret relationships between variables
• Derive customer insights from your data
• Develop spreadsheet models to analyze data, evaluate risk and optimize business decisions
• Present and justify a course of action to management
The capstone project will give you an opportunity to apply what has been covered in the specialization to solve a marketing analytics problem.
Foire Aux Questions
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Une fois que vous êtes inscrit(e) pour un Certificat, vous pouvez accéder à toutes les vidéos de cours, et à tous les quiz et exercices de programmation (le cas échéant). Vous pouvez soumettre des devoirs à examiner par vos pairs et en examiner vous-même uniquement après le début de votre session. Si vous préférez explorer le cours sans l'acheter, vous ne serez peut-être pas en mesure d'accéder à certains devoirs.
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Lorsque vous vous inscrivez au cours, vous bénéficiez d'un accès à tous les cours de la Spécialisation, et vous obtenez un Certificat lorsque vous avez réussi. Votre Certificat électronique est alors ajouté à votre page Accomplissements. À partir de cette page, vous pouvez imprimer votre Certificat ou l'ajouter à votre profil LinkedIn. Si vous souhaitez seulement lire et visualiser le contenu du cours, vous pouvez accéder gratuitement au cours en tant qu'auditeur libre.
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