About this course: Marketers must make the best decisions based on the information presented to them. Rarely will they have all the information necessary to predict what consumers will do with complete certainty. By incorporating uncertainty into the decisions that they make, they can anticipate a wide range of possible outcomes and recognize the extent of uncertainty on the decisions that they make. In Incorporating Uncertainty into Marketing Decisions, learners will become familiar with different methods to recognize sources of uncertainty that may affect the marketing decisions they ultimately make. We eschew specialized software and provide learners with the foundational knowledge they need to develop sophisticated marketing models in a basic spreadsheet environment. Topics include the development and application of Monte Carlo simulations, and the use of probability distributions to characterize uncertainty.

Who is this class for: Prerequisites: It is recommended that you complete the "Meaningful Marketing Insights" course offered by Coursera before starting this course. Learners should have the ability to extract information from the data available and make meaningful insights, understanding of regression methods, and basic knowledge of Microsoft Excel.

Created by: Emory University

Taught by: David Schweidel, Associate Professor of Marketing
Goizueta Business School

Basic Info	Course 2 of 6 in the Foundations of Marketing Analytics Specialization
Level	Intermediate
Language	English
How To Pass	Pass all graded assignments to complete the course.
User Ratings	4.4 stars Average User Rating 4.4See what learners said

Syllabus

WEEK 1

Randomness and Probability

Module 1 focuses on developing an understanding where randomness appears in marketing problems. You will learn basic rules for calculating the probability of outcomes. We will also examine how these rules can be applied to determine the value of information

3 videos, 2 readings

Video: Randomness & Probability: An Introduction
Video: Applications of Randomness & Probability
Video: Assessing the Value of Information
Reading: How Customer Analytics is Speeding the Cure for Parkinson's
Reading: Data Driven Donor Management

Graded: Module 1

WEEK 2

Conducting Monte Carlo Simulations in Excel

Building on the basics of randomness and probability discussed in Module 1, we examine the use of Monte Carlo simulations for incorporating randomness into business problems. Using Microsoft Excel, we will build a tool that conducts a Monte Carlo simulation. We will use this tool to evaluate the best course of action for a particular business problem.

1 video, 4 readings

Video: Randomness & Probability Excel Demonstration
Reading: Inventory Exercise for Excel Demonstration
Reading: Explained: Monte Carlo Simulation
Reading: How Our 2016 MLB Predictions Work
Reading: The Advantages of Monte Carlo Simulations

Graded: Build-A-Game Assignment

WEEK 3

Using Probability Distributions to Model Uncertainty

In Module 3, we look at the use of probability distributions as a means of characterizing uncertainty. We initially look at how uncertainty is incorporated into a general decision making framework. We then turn our attention to different probability distributions that can be used to model uncertainty, depending on the nature of the data. We examine the application of these probability distributions to assess the likelihood of events using features within Microsoft Excel.

5 videos, 1 reading

Video: A General Decision Making Framework
Video: Properties of Random Variables
Video: Steps in Using Probability Functions
Video: Normal Distribution & Other Probability Models
Video: Warnings in Modeling Uncertainty
Reading: Employee Yield Worksheet

Graded: Module 3

WEEK 4

Application: Designing Extended Service Warranty Plans

Building the the discussion of probability distributions in Module 3, we apply this knowledge to a specific application: the design of extended service warranty plans. We provide an overview of the business problem and discuss how to incorporate uncertainty in customers' use of the warranty plan using the Poisson distribution. Using Microsoft Excel, we design a spreadsheet tool that enables a user to adjust features of the service plans. By comparing firm profit under different scenarios, we investigate how different features of the service plan result in risk being shared by the consumer and the firm.

4 videos, 4 readings

Video: Product Protection Plans
Video: Company Constraints & Decisions
Video: Questions to Investigate
Reading: Should You Get An Extended Warranty?
Reading: Don't Buy Extended Warranties
Video: Extended Service Warranty Excel Exercise
Reading: Designing Extended Warranty Plans - Instructions & Excel Spreadsheet
Reading: Poisson Distribution Excel Sheet

Graded: Service Warranty Plans Peer Review

FAQs

How It Works

Coursework

Each course is like an interactive textbook, featuring pre-recorded videos, quizzes and projects.

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Creators

Emory University

Emory University, located in Atlanta, Georgia, is one of the world's leading research universities. Its mission is to create, preserve, teach and apply knowledge in the service of humanity.

Pricing

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Ratings and Reviews

Rated 4.4 out of 5 of 22 ratings

In one word: USEFUL. And that is a lot these days. I use the concepts (and excel tools) everyday!

Great course with very applicable skills for professional or personal life.

Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics

Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics

Managing Uncertainty in Marketing Analytics