À propos de ce cours : Marketers must make the best decisions based on the information presented to them. Rarely will they have all the information necessary to predict what consumers will do with complete certainty. By incorporating uncertainty into the decisions that they make, they can anticipate a wide range of possible outcomes and recognize the extent of uncertainty on the decisions that they make. In Incorporating Uncertainty into Marketing Decisions, learners will become familiar with different methods to recognize sources of uncertainty that may affect the marketing decisions they ultimately make. We eschew specialized software and provide learners with the foundational knowledge they need to develop sophisticated marketing models in a basic spreadsheet environment. Topics include the development and application of Monte Carlo simulations, and the use of probability distributions to characterize uncertainty.

Les destinataires de ce cours : Prerequisites: It is recommended that you complete the "Meaningful Marketing Insights" course offered by Coursera before starting this course. Learners should have the ability to extract information from the data available and make meaningful insights, understanding of regression methods, and basic knowledge of Microsoft Excel.

Créé par : Emory University

Enseigné par : David Schweidel, Associate Professor of Marketing
Goizueta Business School

Informations de base	Cours 2 de 6 dans Foundations of Marketing Analytics Specialization
Niveau	Intermédiaire
Langue	English
Comment réussir	Réussissez tous les devoirs notés pour terminer le cours.
Notes des utilisateurs	4.2 étoiles Note moyenne des utilisateurs 4.2Voir ce que disent les étudiants

Programme de cours

SEMAINE 1

Randomness and Probability

Module 1 focuses on developing an understanding where randomness appears in marketing problems. You will learn basic rules for calculating the probability of outcomes. We will also examine how these rules can be applied to determine the value of information

3 vidéos, 2 lectures

Vidéo: Applications of Randomness & Probability
Vidéo: Assessing the Value of Information
Reading: How Customer Analytics is Speeding the Cure for Parkinson's
Reading: Data Driven Donor Management

Noté: Module 1

SEMAINE 2

Conducting Monte Carlo Simulations in Excel

Building on the basics of randomness and probability discussed in Module 1, we examine the use of Monte Carlo simulations for incorporating randomness into business problems. Using Microsoft Excel, we will build a tool that conducts a Monte Carlo simulation. We will use this tool to evaluate the best course of action for a particular business problem.

1 vidéo, 4 lectures

Reading: Inventory Exercise for Excel Demonstration
Reading: Explained: Monte Carlo Simulation
Reading: How Our 2016 MLB Predictions Work
Reading: The Advantages of Monte Carlo Simulations

Noté: Build-A-Game Assignment

SEMAINE 3

Using Probability Distributions to Model Uncertainty

In Module 3, we look at the use of probability distributions as a means of characterizing uncertainty. We initially look at how uncertainty is incorporated into a general decision making framework. We then turn our attention to different probability distributions that can be used to model uncertainty, depending on the nature of the data. We examine the application of these probability distributions to assess the likelihood of events using features within Microsoft Excel.

5 vidéos, 1 lecture

Vidéo: Properties of Random Variables
Vidéo: Steps in Using Probability Functions
Vidéo: Normal Distribution & Other Probability Models
Vidéo: Warnings in Modeling Uncertainty
Reading: Employee Yield Worksheet

Noté: Module 3

SEMAINE 4

Application: Designing Extended Service Warranty Plans

Building the the discussion of probability distributions in Module 3, we apply this knowledge to a specific application: the design of extended service warranty plans. We provide an overview of the business problem and discuss how to incorporate uncertainty in customers' use of the warranty plan using the Poisson distribution. Using Microsoft Excel, we design a spreadsheet tool that enables a user to adjust features of the service plans. By comparing firm profit under different scenarios, we investigate how different features of the service plan result in risk being shared by the consumer and the firm.

4 vidéos, 4 lectures

Vidéo: Company Constraints & Decisions
Vidéo: Questions to Investigate
Reading: Should You Get An Extended Warranty?
Reading: Don't Buy Extended Warranties
Vidéo: Extended Service Warranty Excel Exercise
Reading: Designing Extended Warranty Plans - Instructions & Excel Spreadsheet
Reading: Poisson Distribution Excel Sheet

Noté: Service Warranty Plans Peer Review

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Coursework

Each course is like an interactive textbook, featuring pre-recorded videos, quizzes and projects.

Help from Your Peers

Connect with thousands of other learners and debate ideas, discuss course material, and get help mastering concepts.

Certificates

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Créateurs

Emory University

Emory University, located in Atlanta, Georgia, is one of the world's leading research universities. Its mission is to create, preserve, teach and apply knowledge in the service of humanity.

Tarification

	Acheter le cours
Accéder au contenu du cours	Disponible
Accéder au contenu noté	Disponible
Recevoir une Note Finale	Disponible
Obtenir un Certificat de Cours partageable	Disponible

Notation et examens

Note moyenne 4.2 sur 5 sur 32 notes

Just as other courses in the series, this course offers hands-on experience with statistical analysis and many opportunities to apply acquired learnings in practice.