À propos de ce cours
4.8
1,111 ratings
234 reviews
We live in a complex world with diverse people, firms, and governments whose behaviors aggregate to produce novel, unexpected phenomena. We see political uprisings, market crashes, and a never ending array of social trends. How do we make sense of it? Models. Evidence shows that people who think with models consistently outperform those who don't. And, moreover people who think with lots of models outperform people who use only one. Why do models make us better thinkers? Models help us to better organize information - to make sense of that fire hose or hairball of data (choose your metaphor) available on the Internet. Models improve our abilities to make accurate forecasts. They help us make better decisions and adopt more effective strategies. They even can improve our ability to design institutions and procedures. In this class, I present a starter kit of models: I start with models of tipping points. I move on to cover models explain the wisdom of crowds, models that show why some countries are rich and some are poor, and models that help unpack the strategic decisions of firm and politicians. The models covered in this class provide a foundation for future social science classes, whether they be in economics, political science, business, or sociology. Mastering this material will give you a huge leg up in advanced courses. They also help you in life. Here's how the course will work. For each model, I present a short, easily digestible overview lecture. Then, I'll dig deeper. I'll go into the technical details of the model. Those technical lectures won't require calculus but be prepared for some algebra. For all the lectures, I'll offer some questions and we'll have quizzes and even a final exam. If you decide to do the deep dive, and take all the quizzes and the exam, you'll receive a Course Certificate. If you just decide to follow along for the introductory lectures to gain some exposure that's fine too. It's all free. And it's all here to help make you a better thinker!...
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Cours en ligne à 100 %

Commencez dès maintenant et apprenez aux horaires qui vous conviennent.
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Dates limites flexibles

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Clock

Recommandé : 4-8 hours/week

Approx. 32 heures pour terminer
Comment Dots

English

Sous-titres : English, Portuguese (Brazilian), Turkish, Ukrainian, Chinese (Simplified)

Compétences que vous acquerrez

ModelingEconomicsDecision-MakingStrategic Thinking
Globe

Cours en ligne à 100 %

Commencez dès maintenant et apprenez aux horaires qui vous conviennent.
Calendar

Dates limites flexibles

Réinitialisez les dates limites selon votre disponibilité.
Clock

Recommandé : 4-8 hours/week

Approx. 32 heures pour terminer
Comment Dots

English

Sous-titres : English, Portuguese (Brazilian), Turkish, Ukrainian, Chinese (Simplified)

Programme du cours : ce que vous apprendrez dans ce cours

1

Section
Clock
3 heures pour terminer

Why Model & Segregation/Peer Effects

In these lectures, I describe some of the reasons why a person would want to take a modeling course. These reasons fall into four broad categories: 1)To be an intelligent citizen of the world 2) To be a clearer thinker 3) To understand and use data 4) To better decide, strategize, and design. There are two readings for this section. These should be read either after the first video or at the completion of all of the videos.We now jump directly into some models. We contrast two types of models that explain a single phenomenon, namely that people tend to live and interact with people who look, think, and act like themselves. After an introductory lecture, we cover famous models by Schelling and Granovetter that cover these phenomena. We follows those with a fun model about standing ovations that I wrote with my friend John Miller. ...
Reading
12 vidéos (Total 124 min), 6 lectures, 1 quiz
Video12 vidéos
Why Model?8 min
Intelligent Citizens of the World11 min
Thinking More Clearly10 min
Using and Understanding Data10 min
Using Models to Decide, Strategize, and Design15 min
Sorting and Peer Effects Introduction5 min
Schelling's Segregation Model11 min
Measuring Segregation11 min
Peer Effects6 min
The Standing Ovation Model18 min
The Identification Problem10 min
Reading6 lectures
Welcome10 min
Grading Policy10 min
Course FAQ10 min
Syllabus10 min
Help us learn more about you!10 min
Segregation and Peer Effects10 min
Quiz1 exercice pour s'entraîner
Why Model? & Segregation and Peer Effects12 min

2

Section
Clock
3 heures pour terminer

Aggregation & Decision Models

In this section, we explore the mysteries of aggregation, i.e. adding things up. We start by considering how numbers aggregate, focusing on the Central Limit Theorem. We then turn to adding up rules. We consider the Game of Life and one dimensional cellular automata models. Both models show how simple rules can combine to produce interesting phenomena. Last, we consider aggregating preferences. Here we see how individual preferences can be rational, but the aggregates need not be.There exist many great places on the web to read more about the Central Limit Theorem, the Binomial Distribution, Six Sigma, The Game of Life, and so on. I've included some links to get you started. The readings for cellular automata and for diverse preferences are short excerpts from my books Complex Adaptive Social Systems and The Difference Respectively....
Reading
12 vidéos (Total 138 min), 1 lecture, 1 quiz
Video12 vidéos
Central Limit Theorem18 min
Six Sigma5 min
Game of Life14 min
Cellular Automata18 min
Preference Aggregation12 min
Introduction to Decision Making5 min
Multi-Criterion Decision Making8 min
Spatial Choice Models11 min
Probability: The Basics10 min
Decision Trees14 min
Value of Information8 min
Reading1 lecture
Decision Models10 min
Quiz1 exercice pour s'entraîner
Aggregation & Decision Models16 min

3

Section
Clock
3 heures pour terminer

Thinking Electrons: Modeling People & Categorical and Linear Models

In this section, we study various ways that social scientists model people. We study and contrast three different models. The rational actor approach, behavioral models, and rule based models . These lectures provide context for many of the models that follow. There's no specific reading for these lectures though I mention several books on behavioral economics that you may want to consider. Also, if you find the race to the bottom game interesting just type "Rosemary Nagel Race to the Bottom" into a search engine and you'll get several good links. You can also find good introductions to "Zero Intelligence Traders" by typing that in as well....
Reading
12 vidéos (Total 130 min), 1 lecture, 1 quiz
Video12 vidéos
Rational Actor Models16 min
Behavioral Models12 min
Rule Based Models12 min
When Does Behavior Matter?12 min
Introduction to Linear Models4 min
Categorical Models15 min
Linear Models8 min
Fitting Lines to Data11 min
Reading Regression Output11 min
From Linear to Nonlinear6 min
The Big Coefficient vs The New Reality11 min
Reading1 lecture
Categorical and Linear Models10 min
Quiz1 exercice pour s'entraîner
Modules Thinking Electrons: Modeling People & Categorical and Linear Models20 min

4

Section
Clock
3 heures pour terminer

Tipping Points & Economic Growth

In this section, we cover tipping points. We focus on two models. A percolation model from physics that we apply to banks and a model of the spread of diseases. The disease model is more complicated so I break that into two parts. The first part focuses on the diffusion. The second part adds recovery. The readings for this section consist of two excerpts from the book I'm writing on models. One covers diffusion. The other covers tips. There is also a technical paper on tipping points that I've included in a link. I wrote it with PJ Lamberson and it will be published in the Quarterly Journal of Political Science. I've included this to provide you a glimpse of what technical social science papers look like. You don't need to read it in full, but I strongly recommend the introduction. It also contains a wonderful reference list....
Reading
13 vidéos (Total 132 min), 1 lecture, 1 quiz
Video13 vidéos
Percolation Models11 min
Contagion Models 1: Diffusion7 min
Contagion Models 2: SIS Model9 min
Classifying Tipping Points8 min
Measuring Tips13 min
Introduction To Growth6 min
Exponential Growth10 min
Basic Growth Model13 min
Solow Growth Model11 min
Will China Continue to Grow?11 min
Why Do Some Countries Not Grow?11 min
Piketty's Capital: The Power of Simple Model8 min
Reading1 lecture
Economic Growth10 min
Quiz1 exercice pour s'entraîner
Modules Tipping Points & Economic Growth18 min
4.8
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Meilleurs avis

par GKFeb 25th 2017

Great content and lectures, that possibly provides new dimensions to look/explain the situation in context, I guess I will comeback for references to continue with this journey in to 'Model Thinking'

par YKApr 7th 2018

The course presents a multitude of models that enable us to analyze human and systems behavior and interactions. By making implicit assumptions explicit we can understand real world processes better.

Enseignant

Scott E. Page

Professor of Complex Systems, Political Science, and Economics
Center for the Study of Complex Systems

À propos de University of Michigan

The mission of the University of Michigan is to serve the people of Michigan and the world through preeminence in creating, communicating, preserving and applying knowledge, art, and academic values, and in developing leaders and citizens who will challenge the present and enrich the future....

Foire Aux Questions

  • Once you enroll for a Certificate, you’ll have access to all videos, quizzes, and programming assignments (if applicable). Peer review assignments can only be submitted and reviewed once your session has begun. If you choose to explore the course without purchasing, you may not be able to access certain assignments.

  • When you purchase a Certificate you get access to all course materials, including graded assignments. Upon completing the course, your electronic Certificate will be added to your Accomplishments page - from there, you can print your Certificate or add it to your LinkedIn profile. If you only want to read and view the course content, you can audit the course for free.

D'autres questions ? Visitez le Centre d'Aide pour les Etudiants.