About this course: Most professions these days require more than general intelligence. They require in addition the ability to collect, analyze and think about data. Personal life is enriched when these same skills are applied to problems in everyday life involving judgment and choice. This course presents basic concepts from statistics, probability, scientific methodology, cognitive psychology and cost-benefit theory and shows how they can be applied to everything from picking one product over another to critiquing media accounts of scientific research. Concepts are defined briefly and breezily and then applied to many examples drawn from business, the media and everyday life. What kinds of things will you learn? Why it’s usually a mistake to interview people for a job. Why it’s highly unlikely that, if your first meal in a new restaurant is excellent, you will find the next meal to be as good. Why economists regularly walk out of movies and leave restaurant food uneaten. Why getting your picture on the cover of Sports Illustrated usually means your next season is going to be a disappointment. Why you might not have a disease even though you’ve tested positive for it. Why you’re never going to know how coffee affects you unless you conduct an experiment in which you flip a coin to determine whether you will have coffee on a given day. Why it might be a mistake to use an office in a building you own as opposed to having your office in someone else’s building. Why you should never keep a stock that’s going down in hopes that it will go back up and prevent you from losing any of your initial investment. Why it is that a great deal of health information presented in the media is misinformation.

Who is this class for: The course is intended for everyone and requires no prior learning beyond a high school education. No mathematics is involved. The course has special value for students who are beginning a college career. It provides an overview of a large portion of the college curriculum, showing what fields such as statistics and microeconomics are about and cluing the student to the fact that abstract principles they will learn in many of their courses can, with a little imagination, be applied to everyday life.

Created by: University of Michigan

Taught by: Richard E. Nisbett, Theodore M. Newcomb Distinguished University Professor
Department of Psychology

Level	Beginner
Commitment	4 weeks of study; 3-4 hours/week
Language	English
How To Pass	Pass all graded assignments to complete the course.
User Ratings	4.8 stars Average User Rating 4.8See what learners said

Syllabus

WEEK 1

Introduction

Individuals and cultures can make themselves smarter. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, people have become enormously smarter. The Information Age requires a brand-new set of skills involving statistics, probability, cost-benefit analysis, principles of cognitive psychology, logic and dialectical reasoning.

1 video, 3 readings

Reading: Welcome Message and Course Principles from Professor Nisbett
Video: Course Introduction
Reading: (Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
Reading: Help us learn more about you!

Lesson 1: Statistics

Basic concepts of statistics and probability including the concepts of variable, normal distribution, standard deviation, correlation, reliability, validity, and effect size. Concrete examples are drawn from everyday life and show how the concepts can be used to solve ordinary problems.

2 videos, 2 readings

Video: Variables - Normal Distribution
Video: Introduction to Correlation
Reading: Interactive Activity
Discussion Prompt: End-of-Lesson Reflection
Reading: (Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

Graded: Lesson 1 Quiz

Lesson 2: The Law of Large Numbers

How to think about events in such a way that they can be counted and a decision can be made about how much data is enough. You will learn about the concept of error variance and how it can be combatted by obtaining multiple observations. Your will learn that your judgments about people’s personalities are prone to serious errors that are largely avoided for judgments about abilities. And you will discover why it’s usually a mistake to interview job applicants.

2 videos, 2 readings, 3 practice quizzes

Practice Quiz: Pre-lecture Reflection Prompt
Practice Quiz: Pre-lecture Quiz
Video: The Law of Large Numbers: Part 1
Video: The Law of Large Numbers: Part 2
Reading: Interactive Activity
Practice Quiz: Post-lecture Reflection Prompt
Discussion Prompt: End-of-Lesson Reflection
Reading: (Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

Graded: Lesson 2 Quiz

WEEK 2

Lesson 3: Correlation

It can be extremely difficult to make an accurate assessment of how two variables are related to one another; prior beliefs can be more important than data in estimating the strength of a given relationship. You will learn simple tools to estimate degree of association. You will learn about the nature of illusory correlations and how to avoid them. You will learn about the concepts of confounded variable and self-selection error.

4 videos, 3 readings, 1 practice quiz

Reading: Pre-lecture Activity
Video: Correlations
Video: The Draw-a-Person Test
Video: Illusory Correlation
Reading: Interactive Activity
Video: Confounded Variables; Statistical Significance
Practice Quiz: Correlation Exercises
Reading: (Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

Graded: Lesson 3 Quiz

Lesson 4: Experiments

You will learn that correlations can only rarely provide conclusive evidence about whether one variable exerts a causal influence on another and why experiments provide far better evidence about causality than correlations. You will be shown how to conduct experiments in business settings and experiments on yourself. You will learn the distinction between within subject designs and between subject designs. You will learn about the concept of artifacts and some tricks for avoiding them. You will learn how to discover natural experiments.

3 videos, 2 readings

Reading: Pre-lecture Activity
Video: The Superiority of Experiments over Correlations
Video: A/B Testing
Video: Experimental Design and Natural Experiments
Discussion Prompt: End-of-Lesson Reflection
Discussion Prompt: End-of-Lesson Challenge
Reading: (Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

Graded: Lesson 4 Quiz

WEEK 3

Lesson 5: Prediction

You will learn about the kinds of systematic errors we make when trying to predict the future. You will learn about regression to the mean and why you should assume that extreme values on a variable will be less extreme when next observed. You will learn how to think about observations in terms of true score plus error. You will learn about the concept of base rate and why it must be taken into account when estimating probabilities of specific events.

2 videos, 2 readings

Reading: Pre-lecture Question
Video: Regression to the Mean
Video: Base Rate
Discussion Prompt: End-of-Lesson Reflection
Reading: (Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

Graded: Lesson 5 Quiz

Lesson 6: Cognitive Biases

We understand the world not through direct perception but through inferential procedures that we are unaware of. Our understanding of the world is heavily influenced by schemas or abstract representations of events. We are prone to serious judgment errors that can be avoided to a degree when we understand their basis. We make guesses about probability and causality by applying the representativeness heuristic based on similarity assessments which can be very misleading. We make judgments about frequency and probability by relying in part on the availability heuristic, judging things as frequent or probable to the degree that instances come readily to mind.

3 videos, 1 reading, 1 practice quiz

Practice Quiz: Pre-lecture Quiz
Video: The Illusion of Objectivity
Video: Heuristics
Video: Fundamental Attribution Error; Confirmation Bias
Discussion Prompt: End-of-Lesson Reflection
Reading: (Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

Graded: Lesson 6 Quiz

WEEK 4

Lesson 7: Choosing and Deciding

How to conduct a cost-benefit analysis. Why you should throw the analysis away after doing it if the decision is personal and very important. How to avoid throwing good money after bad. How to avoid doing something that will prevent you from doing something more valuable. Why it can be expensive to try to avoid the possibility of loss. Why incentives can backfire.

3 videos, 1 reading, 1 practice quiz

Practice Quiz: Pre-lecture Activity
Video: Cost-Benefit Analysis
Video: Sunk Costs
Video: Loss Aversion
Discussion Prompt: End-of-Lecture Reflection
Reading: (Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

Graded: Lesson 7 Quiz

Lesson 8: Logic and Dialectical Reasoning

The distinction between inductive logic and deductive logic. Syllogisms. Conditional reasoning. The distinction between truth of an argument and validity of an argument. The concepts of necessity and sufficiency. Venn diagrams. Common logical errors. When to avoid contradiction and when to embrace it, how to avoid undue certainty about judgments and decisions, and why attention to context rather than form is crucial for analysis of most real-world problems.

2 videos, 1 reading, 1 practice quiz

Practice Quiz: Pre-lecture Quiz
Video: Logical Reasoning
Video: Dialectical Reasoning
Discussion Prompt: End-of-Lecture Reflection
Reading: (Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book

Graded: Lesson 8 Quiz

Conclusion

1 video, 2 readings

Video: Concluding Thoughts
Reading: (Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
Reading: Post-course Survey

FAQs

How It Works

Coursework

Each course is like an interactive textbook, featuring pre-recorded videos, quizzes and projects.

Help from Your Peers

Connect with thousands of other learners and debate ideas, discuss course material, and get help mastering concepts.

Certificates

Earn official recognition for your work, and share your success with friends, colleagues, and employers.

Creators

University of Michigan

The mission of the University of Michigan is to serve the people of Michigan and the world through preeminence in creating, communicating, preserving and applying knowledge, art, and academic values, and in developing leaders and citizens who will challenge the present and enrich the future.

Ratings and Reviews

Rated 4.8 out of 5 of 82 ratings

Jolly good classes

This is a great course for anyone who wants to improve the way they approach problems and choices. It introduces topics that are useful in everyday life but are generally accessible only in higher education (Behavior and Social Sciences, Economics, Philosophy). The video materials are great and the course is fun to go through. I definitely recommend it to anyone!

A very good course prof Richard has explained very difficult to understand concepts in a very simple language and made it easy for students to grasp the subject matter easily.

This is one of the best courses for everyone. It describes very common life situations and give you the right answer on them. The course is built very interesting. First you should answer the questions or make exersices and afterward the professor explain to you your mistakes (if you made them) and describes the logic of conclusions in a very clear way. I definitely recommend this course to all. Thank you!

Share

Mindware: Critical Thinking for the Information Age

Mindware: Critical Thinking for the Information Age

Mindware: Critical Thinking for the Information Age