Comment réduire les émissions dans un contexte de croissance du PIB et de la population au Sud? - Gaël Giraud

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En provenance du cours de École normale supérieure

Les transitions énergétique-écologiques dans les pays du Sud

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École normale supérieure

Les transitions énergétique-écologiques dans les pays du Sud

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Ce MOOC co-produit par l'Agence Française de Développement et l'ENS se situe à la confluence du développement des pays du Sud et le développement durable. Il a : - une dimension macroéconomique et financière portée notamment par Gael Giraud et Alain Grandjean en tant qu’intervenants, - une dimension écologique et climatique portée notamment par David Claessen et les intervenants de l’ENS, et - une dimension de focus sur les pays du Sud portée notamment par les intervenants de l’AFD. Voici les objectifs d'apprentissage de l'ensemble de la formation Obj 1 : Être en mesure de faire le lien entre la transition énergétique, la transition écologique, le rôle de l’énergie dans l’économie, le modèle de développement économique et les questions de financement Obj 2 : Savoir plaider et argumenter, sur les enjeux, la nécessité de changer la réalité pour mettre en place des stratégies et des plans d’actions Obj 3 : Savoir faire le lien entre la Transition énergétique et les solutions de financement, savoir faire le lien entre compréhension et actions Jusqu’à présent, le développement des pays du Nord reposait sur une exploitation croissante des ressources énergétiques ainsi qu’une liberté accrue de commerce et d’échanges à l’échelle de la planète ; or, nous savons désormais qu’un tel modèle n’est plus soutenable, en raison du réchauffement climatique et de la surexploitation des ressources conduisant à des désastres sanitaires, sociaux et environnementaux. Dès lors, comment assurer une croissance juste et équitable pour tous ? Quel rôle les pays des Suds ont-ils à jouer dans ce bouleversement complet des modèles économiques, commerciaux et politiques actuels, pour mener une transition énergétique et écologique efficace ? Ce cours en ligne gratuit propose le point de vue croisé de plusieurs spécialistes des problématiques liées au changement climatique et au développement des Suds. Sous un angle résolument pratique, ils livreront leur lecture des crises actuelles et les réponses pouvant y être apportées. Programme : Semaine 1 : Notre mode de développement est insoutenable écologiquement Semaine 2 : Les modèles économiques dominants font obstacle à la transition énergétique et écologique Semaine 3 : La trajectoire de la transition énergétique : décarboner le PIB Semaine 4 : Le modèle d'une transition écologique vers une nouvelle prospérité Semaine 5 : La gouvernance de la transition énergétique et écologique Semaine 6 : Le financement de la transition énergétique et écologique

À partir de la leçon

La trajectoire de la transition énergétique : décarboner le PIB

La comptabilité carbone veut réconcilier l’horizon temporel de nos actions avec les enjeux de la transition énergétique. Elle limite les comportements de court terme en chiffrant les externalités des activités sectorielles et légitime le développement d’une réglementation punitive. Elle facilite les stratégies de coopération en rendant possibles les comparaisons internationales et assure la transparence des négociations. En somme, elle permet d’établir des diagnostics pays, d’identifier les projets climato-comptables et de rediriger les investissements vers les actifs verts.

Comment réduire les émissions dans un contexte de croissance du PIB et de la population au Sud? - Gaël Giraud8:30

Rencontrer les enseignants

Gael Giraud
Economiste en chef à l'Agence Française de Développement
Economie
David Claessen
Maitre de conférences à l'ENS
Ecologie-évolutive et environnement-société
Alain Grandjean
Docteur en économie de l'environnement, co-fondateur de Carbone 4
Economie de l'environnement

Hello and welcome!

In this session you’ll learn about

the link between GDP growth and the growth in the consumption

or squandering of energy,

using the “Kaya equation”.

It is possible to decouple growth in energy consumption

from GDP growth.

Given the strong population growth in the South,

this decoupling is indispensable.

Decoupling and reducing carbon dependence in the economy

are the two keys of a successful energy transition.

In this graph, on the X-axis, we have

the amount of primary energy consumed worldwide,

and on the Y-axis,

the real global GDP in purchasing power parity.

The first point in the curve corresponds to 1960,

the last, in the upper right, to 2012.

As you can see on this graph,

the ratio of the increase in wealth produced

worldwide, given in constant dollars,

to the increase in the amount of primary energy used

is practically constant.

Decoupling would consist of producing more wealth

without increasing energy or using less energy.

So, a perfect decoupling would be shown by a vertical curve,

that we’re still very far off from, worldwide, as you can see.

As long as prosperity is measured by GDP

and the energy transition toward low-carbon alternatives

has not yet occurred,

dependence on energy consumption,

80% of which comes from fossil sources around the world,

will remain very high.

The question of completely decoupling the GDP from energy,

in any form, thus remains open.

From 1960 to 2013,

the world GDP that was produced using a given amount of energy

increased by 40%,

which means that, with the same amount of energy,

we’ve been able to make 0.8% more GDP per year on average.

Indeed, as you can see on this second graph,

in the 1960s, the gains were nil,

which can be explained by the fact that fossil fuels, at that time,

were assumed to be available in an unlimited supply

and at a falling price.

What’s more,

after the oil crises of 1974 and 1979,

we’ve seen two moves toward efficiency and carbon reduction

after the rise in fossil fuel prices.

In an agrarian economy,

for example, in a country in Sub-Saharan Africa,

without fossil fuels, or almost none,

a poor peasant produces a GDP to the order of one dollar per day

using the energy of their body,

which can’t be higher than 1 kWh of mechanical energy per day.

The energy efficiency of the GDP is around $1 per kWh, more or less.

In Western countries, the GDP per person is

some tens of thousands of dollars per year,

and energy consumption is around 50,000 kWh per year.

Here, too, then, we’re at a ratio of $1,

$0.50, or $2 per kWh.

In other words,

energy abundance doesn’t necessarily improve

the energy efficiency of the economy,

and sometimes does the opposite.

Japanese economist Yoichi Kaya

has developed an equation popularised by the IPCC.

At first this equation was a tautology.

We break down human carbon dioxide emissions

into carbon dioxide produced by oil-equivalent tonne,

then by oil-equivalent tonne per unit of the GDP,

then to the GDP per capita,

then by the population.

In ordinary language, this equation tells us that

carbon dioxide emissions are always equal

to the carbon dioxide content of the energy consumed,

multiplied by the energy intensity of the GDP,

multiplied by the wealth per person,

multiplied by the population.

The form of the Kaya equation highlights

the challenge of cutting greenhouse gas emissions

by 75% by 2050,

which is the goal of the ecological transition.

This challenge is all the more difficult to meet

given demographic predictions

that show a 30% increase

in world population by 2050.

If the GDP per capita ratio is supposed to grow 3% per year,

we can appreciate the size of the challenge.

We have to cut

the carbon intensity of energy by 75% by 2050,

and cut the energy intensity of the world GDP by half.

Is this possible?

The Kaya equation also lets us analyse

the dependence of energy on GDP growth.

From 1965 to 1981,

worldwide growth in GDP per capita

was around 3.5% per year on average,

which is considerable.

Around 2.5% of this 3.5%

corresponded to the increase

in the consumption of primary energy per capita,

and the remaining 1%,

to the increase in the consumption productivity of primary energy,

the famous “technical progress.”

From 1981 to 2013,

the growth in energy consumption per capita

fell to 0.5%.

So the growth in worldwide GDP became markedly slower.

As for Japan, since 2000,

the 3 terms of the equation are zero there

essentially because of deflation.

The challenge of decoupling is to produce more wealth

while reducing our energy dependence.

An initial decoupling, has been observed over 40 years

in the consumption of oil around the world.

Thanks to the trauma of the two oil crises in the 1970s,

industry adapted, becoming less dependent on oil.

Efficiency efforts were made in many sectors,

and low-carbon energy sources were developed.

The rapid development of nuclear power in France

was the result of a deliberate political will

to reduce the country’s dependence on black gold.

Decoupling efforts have borne fruit worldwide,

as shown by the graph you see now.

This time, the X-axis shows world oil consumption,

and the Y-axis the real global GDP in purchasing power parity.

The break in the slope that you can see in the 1980s

reflects the push toward partial decoupling

around the world.

In 2014, the United Nations Environment Programme

produced, moreover, a report on decoupling

that points to the need to make considerable efforts

in terms of efficiency

in natural resources such as ores.

We need to achieve an absolute decoupling,

that is, a decrease in the consumption of materials

when the GDP increases, and not just a relative decoupling,

that is, an increase in the consumption of materials

that’s slower than the GDP,

in order to achieve sustainable growth.

The last report, sent to the Club of Rome in 2015

by Italian physicist Ugo Bardi, confirms this alarming warning

about our dependence not just on oil

but on the ores found in the Earth’s subsurface.

The oil crises forced an initial decoupling

which is proving to be effective, at least with regard to oil.

Rather than continue to use fossil fuels

and ores as if they were inexhaustible,

and as if fossil fuels didn’t cause emissions,

it is urgent to systematise efficiency efforts

and the implementation of circular economy programmes,

via recycling.

All of which are excellent responses to this imperative

but take time to be implemented in developed economies.

Thank you for your attention.

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