The sustainability of the regime means that the regime can
adapt to the changes in the environment.
What kind of changes might occur?
We will see later.
Now, let's concentrate on the words,
solve the problem and solve the problem jointly.
The participants of the regime need to have
the common understanding that the problem really exists.
But at the same time,
they should agree that the problem can be solved,
that it's not too complex to solve it.
So, if the problem is too complex to solve,
it is not impossible to meet to reach the agreement.
At the same time,
the participants of the regime should have
a common vision regarding the measures and the approaches,
how to solve the problem.
And they should agree that
multilateral or bilateral joint actions will be more
effective than unilateral actions to solve the same problem.
So, now let's look at the capacity to adapt to changes.
First of all, we will see what type of changes might be.
I think that we can divide all changes into three parts.
First of all, there are a lot of technological changes and
the changes in the technological context are usually very rapid.
So, technology might change rapidly.
Secondly, there may be some domestic changes.
What type of changes are they?
For example, there might be the crisis,
the disagreement between the legislative branch and
the executive branch of powers within the government.
And it may lead to the crisis in complying with the obligations under the treaty,
or there might be some economic crisis that may create some difficulties
in complying with the obligations under the arms control treaty.
There might be some changes,
changes in domestic politics,
changes in doctrine regarding, for example,
the role of nuclear weapons for
national security or the changes in the national strategy,
and the approaches to secure national sovereignty and national interests.
And last but not least,
there might be some international challenges,
changes in the international context.
For example, the structure of international relations
might change after the collapse of USSR,
after the Soviet Union ceased to exist,
arms control regimes faced serious challenges and Russia became
the successor of the obligations
that were agreed by the USSR.
So, the collapse of the structure of international relations
may be a serious challenge to the international arms control regime.
At the same time, some states may withdraw from
significant international treaties that create
the foundation for the system of international relations,
that will be a serious shock for arms control regimes.
There might be also some difficulties or some shifts in
the structure of security or in the balance of powers.
So, the shifts in strategic stability may also create
some challenges to the international arms control regime.
So now, let's look how the regime may keep its effectiveness,
how the participants of the regime may secure the compliance with the obligations.
There might be different adaptation mechanisms,
and let's look what types of mechanisms may be used.
First of all, if there are some changes in the environment,
this is a significant challenge to the concepts to the visions of
the states that influence the understanding regarding
the approaches and measures that may be used to solve the problem.
So, if in combination with the deterioration in relations,
the problem to meet the compliance exists,
the state's participants of the regime may use
the instrument of so-called double track diplomacy or Track II diplomacy.
It means that on nonofficial level,
the experts and the former officials meet to discuss the concepts,
to revise the concepts,
and to find common vision,
common understanding regarding the possible approaches to solve the problem.
At the same time, the officials may establish ad hoc channels to negotiate the problems,
and to discuss possible approaches to solve the problem,
and to discuss the understanding of the nature of the problem.
So, ad hoc.
Ad hoc commissions,
ad hoc negotiations may be
used to adapt international arms control regime to the rapid changes.
Another instrument may be described in the provisions of the treaty.
For example, special commission may be established under the treaty,
and this instrument will be used as an adaptation mechanism
in the time of a crisis or in a time of rapid change.
So, some kind of commission under the treaty.
If everything goes too
rapid and there is some crisis on the domestic level,
the states are not ready to negotiate
further agreements and establish further additional arrangements,
then the states' participants to the treaty may agree to extend the treaty,
to extend the existing treaty.
Extension.
Extension may be the way to solve this problem and
overcome the crisis to give additional time to find another adaptation mechanisms.
If the states are not happy with
the existing mechanisms and they think that
the existing regime does not help to solve the problem,
they may withdraw from the treaty.
