6.3 'Efficiencey, Sufficiency, and Sustainability. Part 2'

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En provenance du cours de Saint Petersburg State University

Russia and Nuclear Arms Control

20 notes

Saint Petersburg State University

Russia and Nuclear Arms Control

20 notes

As a state with one of the largest arsenals of nuclear weapons Russia is a key participant of nuclear non-proliferation regime and defines nuclear arms control as a priority of its foreign policy. This course will discover the logic and the frames of Russian nuclear arms control policies. You will learn the historical background and the modern context of bilateral US-Russian relations in nuclear arms control and understand how these relations influence the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. You will get the basic tools for analyzing Russian defence and security policy in regards to nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. Upon the completion this course the students will… ...be able to - analyze the actions of a state from the point of view of the present treaties on nuclear arms control; - come up with their own opinion on the problem commented by the arms control experts; - make arguments supporting their position in discussions of nuclear arms control. ...get to know - the technical, political and strategic aspects of agreements on nuclear arms control; - the content of arms control treaties in which Russia participates; - the trustworthy informational resources dedicated to the problem of nuclear arms control. ...be familiar with - the special terminology in the area of arms control; - the modern state and the perspectives of international policy regarding nuclear arms control; - the basics of Russia’s nuclear arms control policy.

À partir de la leçon

Russia - U.S. Nuclear Arms Control Regime

6.1 'The Notion of a Regime'6:13

6.2 'Efficiencey, Sufficiency, and Sustainability. Part 1'10:08

6.3 'Efficiencey, Sufficiency, and Sustainability. Part 2'15:15

6.4 'Nuclear Weapons: How Many are Enough?'12:22

6.5 'Nuclear Weapons: How to Calculate?'8:13

6.6 'Treaty Obligations: How to Verify?'7:28

Rencontrer les enseignants

Anastasia A. Malygina
Assistant Professor
Department of Theory and History of International Relations
Andrey Y. Pavlov
Professor
Department of Theory and History of International Relations

So, let's now look how the three features

of functioning the regime correlate with each other.

As you remember the,

regime can be effective if

the participants of the regime comply with norms and obligations under the treaty.

The regime might also be

sufficient if the regime

helps to solve the problem,

but it's very important that these problem must be solved jointly.

All will come back later to these two words,

the problem and jointly.

And last but not least,

the regime must be sustainable.

The sustainability of the regime means that the regime can

adapt to the changes in the environment.

What kind of changes might occur?

We will see later.

Now, let's concentrate on the words,

solve the problem and solve the problem jointly.

The participants of the regime need to have

the common understanding that the problem really exists.

But at the same time,

they should agree that the problem can be solved,

that it's not too complex to solve it.

So, if the problem is too complex to solve,

it is not impossible to meet to reach the agreement.

At the same time,

the participants of the regime should have

a common vision regarding the measures and the approaches,

how to solve the problem.

And they should agree that

multilateral or bilateral joint actions will be more

effective than unilateral actions to solve the same problem.

So, now let's look at the capacity to adapt to changes.

First of all, we will see what type of changes might be.

I think that we can divide all changes into three parts.

First of all, there are a lot of technological changes and

the changes in the technological context are usually very rapid.

So, technology might change rapidly.

Secondly, there may be some domestic changes.

What type of changes are they?

For example, there might be the crisis,

the disagreement between the legislative branch and

the executive branch of powers within the government.

And it may lead to the crisis in complying with the obligations under the treaty,

or there might be some economic crisis that may create some difficulties

in complying with the obligations under the arms control treaty.

There might be some changes,

changes in domestic politics,

changes in doctrine regarding, for example,

the role of nuclear weapons for

national security or the changes in the national strategy,

and the approaches to secure national sovereignty and national interests.

And last but not least,

there might be some international challenges,

changes in the international context.

For example, the structure of international relations

might change after the collapse of USSR,

after the Soviet Union ceased to exist,

arms control regimes faced serious challenges and Russia became

the successor of the obligations

that were agreed by the USSR.

So, the collapse of the structure of international relations

may be a serious challenge to the international arms control regime.

At the same time, some states may withdraw from

significant international treaties that create

the foundation for the system of international relations,

that will be a serious shock for arms control regimes.

There might be also some difficulties or some shifts in

the structure of security or in the balance of powers.

So, the shifts in strategic stability may also create

some challenges to the international arms control regime.

So now, let's look how the regime may keep its effectiveness,

how the participants of the regime may secure the compliance with the obligations.

There might be different adaptation mechanisms,

and let's look what types of mechanisms may be used.

First of all, if there are some changes in the environment,

this is a significant challenge to the concepts to the visions of

the states that influence the understanding regarding

the approaches and measures that may be used to solve the problem.

So, if in combination with the deterioration in relations,

the problem to meet the compliance exists,

the state's participants of the regime may use

the instrument of so-called double track diplomacy or Track II diplomacy.

It means that on nonofficial level,

the experts and the former officials meet to discuss the concepts,

to revise the concepts,

and to find common vision,

common understanding regarding the possible approaches to solve the problem.

At the same time, the officials may establish ad hoc channels to negotiate the problems,

and to discuss possible approaches to solve the problem,

and to discuss the understanding of the nature of the problem.

So, ad hoc.

Ad hoc commissions,

ad hoc negotiations may be

used to adapt international arms control regime to the rapid changes.

Another instrument may be described in the provisions of the treaty.

For example, special commission may be established under the treaty,

and this instrument will be used as an adaptation mechanism

in the time of a crisis or in a time of rapid change.

So, some kind of commission under the treaty.

If everything goes too

rapid and there is some crisis on the domestic level,

the states are not ready to negotiate

further agreements and establish further additional arrangements,

then the states' participants to the treaty may agree to extend the treaty,

to extend the existing treaty.

Extension.

Extension may be the way to solve this problem and

overcome the crisis to give additional time to find another adaptation mechanisms.

If the states are not happy with

the existing mechanisms and they think that

the existing regime does not help to solve the problem,

they may withdraw from the treaty.

They may withdraw from the treaty,

and then negotiate a new treaty and establish a new mechanism.

So now, let's look at some examples.

After the end of the Second World War,

the so-called Cold War started.

And the Western Bloc was trying to prevent the transfer

of the items and technologies of strategic significance to the so-called Eastern Bloc,

first of all, to the USSR and its allies.

So, the so-called Coordination Committee for Multilateral Export Controls

was established in 1949.

But after the end of the Cold War, the problem disappeared.

There was no need to control the transfer of sensitive technologies

to the Eastern countries because many allies of the USSR,

after the end of the Cold War, joined NATO.

So, the COCOM ceased to exist,

but the problem of export control continued to exist.

That's why the states decided to establish a new mechanism,

the so-called Wassenaar Agreement or Wassenaar Arrangements.

And Russia joined Wassenaar Arrangements after it was established in 1996.

Another example, after the collapse of the USSR,

Russian Federation witnessed a serious systematic crisis,

the crisis that addressed both economic and political aspects.

So, Russia meet different difficulties in compliance

with the bilateral arms control treaties in the sphere of nuclear arms control.

And there were significant economic reasons for that.

So, United States initiated an additional mechanism,

a program that was established to help

the bilateral nuclear arms control agreement to adapt to the challenges and changes.

The so-called Nunn-Lugar Program or Cooperative Threat Reduction Program,

was launched in 1991.

But after the problem was solved and Russia has overcome

the difficulties connected with the political and economic crisis,

Russia demonstrated that it has no lone interest.

There is no more intention to

cooperate within the framework of this Cooperative Threat Reduction Program.

So, in 2013, the program ceased to function.

So, you can see that the problem

was solved according to the Russian vision and Russian understanding.

And one of the participants of the regime just withdrew from the arrangements.

So, this is how the three aspects correlate with

each other and different combinations of

changes and challenges effect the functioning of the regime.

So we need to remember that the regime is not static,

and it needs some mechanisms to adapt to the changes.

The fundamental problem here is that the changes,

the shifts, or the crises occur rapidly.

And, very often, it's very difficult to predict the time and the nature of the crisis.

And adaptation mechanisms have their own fundamental inertia.

They move slowly.

It's very difficult to secure

rapid reaction to the problems that occur in the international,

domestic, or technological context.

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