Enjeux macroéconomiques du VE (1/2) : quels effets pour les pays ?

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En provenance du cours de École des Ponts ParisTech

Mobilités et véhicules électriques

28 notes

École des Ponts ParisTech

Mobilités et véhicules électriques

28 notes

L’objectif de ce MOOC est d’aider ses apprenants, quel que soit leur profil, leur formation ou leur pays d’origine, à construire une réponse personnelle à des questions comme celles-ci : - Les voitures électriques seront-elles les dernières à circuler dans les métropoles du XXI° siècle ? - Le gain environnemental associé à l’électrification des véhicules justifie-t-il des investissements massifs dans les infrastructures de charge ? - Le véhicule électrique est-il réservé aux riches des pays du Nord ? Grâce à ce MOOC, les participants pourront acquérir des connaissances issues des sciences de l’ingénieur, de la sociologie, des sciences de l’environnement, de l’économie, de la géographie et des sciences politiques pour évaluer, analyser et mettre en œuvre le déploiement des véhicules électriques là où il est pertinent. Le Groupe Renault et les écoles de ParisTech collaborent depuis bientôt 15 ans sur des sujets liés à la mobilité durable. Ensemble, ils ont créé deux Masters (Transport et développement durable en 2004, Mobilité et véhicules électriques en 2010) et l’Institut de la Mobilité Durable (IMD), en 2009, pour accompagner les mutations en cours. Le MOOC Mobilités et véhicules électriques est issu de cette histoire commune et a été élaboré à partir d'un cours délivré au sein du Master Mobilités et Véhicules Électriques, piloté par Arts et Métiers ParisTech en partenariat avec Ensta ParisTech, Mines ParisTech et l’École des Ponts ParisTech. Ce cours est en français, cependant des sous-titres en anglais sont disponibles pour toutes les vidéos et vous pouvez écrire vos messages dans le forum en anglais si vous le désirez./ This course is given in French, nevertheless English subtitles are available for all videos and you can write your posts in the forum in English if desired.

À partir de la leçon

Chapitre 3 - Analyse économique

<p>Nous utiliserons dans ce chapitre l'analyse économique pour éclairer le choix entre voiture thermique et électrique. </p><p>Après avoir présenté dans les <em>Points méthode</em> quelques outils et concepts d'analyse économique, nous utiliserons ce cadre analytique pour évaluer les coûts et les gains associés à l'électrification du parc automobile, du point de vue des acheteurs comme de celui de la société, en tenant compte à la fois du coût des batteries, des infrastructures de charge, des gains en termes environnementaux et des modifications de recettes fiscales pour l'État.<br/> Puis nous évoquerons les enjeux macroéconomiques du véhicule électrique, avant de nous intéresser à la demande et au potentiel de demande de véhicule électrique à l'échelle microéconomique.</p><p>Le chapitre se conclut bien entendu par une évaluation sous forme de quiz. Cette évaluation ne porte que sur les vidéos de cours et est notée.</p>

Point méthode - Les enjeux du VE pour l'industrie et les comptes publics3:12

Enjeux macroéconomiques du VE (1/2) : quels effets pour les pays ?8:39

Enjeux macroéconomiques du VE : effets sur l'approvisionnement énergétique12:16

Le saviez-vous ? Dépendance au pétrole des transports dans le monde3:06

Le saviez-vous ? La précarité énergétique3:25

Rencontrer les enseignants

Virginie BOUTUEIL
Researcher
LVMT (City Mobility Transport Lab), École des Ponts ParisTech
Émeric FORTIN
Head of the Master in Transport and Sustainable Development
Direction of Studies, École des Ponts ParisTech

-This is the first of two videos

about the analysis of macroeconomic challenges

of electric cars at the country level.

The aim for this video is to grasp the concepts of industrial production,

industrial employment, industrial added value

and industry.

And also to grasp how a country can tackle the industrial challenges

of electric cars based on its specific industrial equipment.

The World Bank

and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the OECD,

define industrial production

as the production from industrial establishments

and specify that it not only applies to the manufacturing sector

but also sectors such as mining or agribusiness

and collective public services of electricity, gas and water supply.

Industrial production comes with strong challenges

on a national scale, in terms of employment and added value,

i.e. the added created wealth.

The share of industry

in national employment of most developed countries

strongly decreased in the late 20th century

and then in the 21st century.

Industry only represented 18% of jobs in the United States in 2015

when it was 25% in 1990,

20% in France in 2015 when it was 30% in 1990,

28% in Germany in 2015 when it was 50% in 1990.

According to Eurostat, the EU has lost 17% of its industrial jobs,

1 out of 6, or 7 million jobs over 20 years, between 1995 and 2015.

In China, on the contrary, which was going through an industrial boom,

the share of industry in employment grew from 21% in 1990

to 29% in 2015.

The car manufacturing industry lost 112 000 jobs in France

between 1990 and 2015.

So in 25 years, it lost a third of its jobs.

The share of industry in national wealth as measured by the GDP

is also decreasing in many developed countries.

The drop of industry in terms of added value

is however less pronounced than in terms of jobs.

This suggests for now a better retention rate on their territory

of high-added-value industrial jobs in developed countries.

In France and in the US,

industry only represents 20% of the national wealth

when it was 25% 20 years earlier.

Since 2010, there has been a stabilization

of the contribution of industry to national wealth

in the US and in France around 20%,

in most European countries around 25%

and in Germany around 30%.

Based on the French national institute for statistics, the INSEE,

"industry" implies all complementary activities which contribute,

upstream and downstream, to the realization of a finished product.

The electronic industry covers from the silicium to the computer

and all its components.

The automotive industry covers steel transformation

to vehicle assembly and equipment manufacturing.

The automotive industry can be broken down in segments.

Upstream, we have all branches which provide the other branches,

such as the raw material extraction and transformation industries,

or mining and steel industries.

The branches in the central segment handle the transformation

and manufacturing of the components and finished product,

such as the car manufacturing industry.

Downstream, we have all activities which buy from the other branches.

For instance, we have distribution and especially car dealerships.

Since electric vehicles will change the architecture of motor vehicles,

their engines and some of their parts may regalvanize

the automotive industry

in developed countries where it is declining.

In addition, since it requires electricity storage technologies,

electric vehicles may also lead to the emergence

and development of new industries in the battery sector.

Some countries see the rise in electric vehicles as an opportunity

to develop integrated industries,

in order to control the entire added-value chain

from upstream to downstream.

Upstream, they can control

the extraction and transformation of essential raw materials

such as rare-earth elements, neodymium, dysprosium or samarium,

used to produce the compact magnets present in electric vehicle engines,

or lithium which is used in batteries.

Downstream, they can control the service industries

link to vehicle recharging in order to create synergies

with an electric power industry which uses renewable sources,

especially if it is intermittent, such as wind power or photovoltaics.

All these industrial challenges

will have different consequences depending on whether the country has

an automotive industry, be it historical or developing.

Historical national industries in developed countries

have suffered a lot since the 1990s

because of the competition from Asian countries, Japan, Korea and China.

They have to be regalvanized

to keep their jobs on their territories.

This explains the support for electric vehicles in Europe and the US.

Some emerging countries, such as India or China,

have strong ambitions for their automotive industry.

They are also susceptible of supporting electric vehicles

for their positive consequences for the industry.

The industrial challenges of electric vehicles have different consequences

if the country has an energy storage industry using batteries or not,

be it historical or developing.

Batteries have potential uses in transportation,

cars, buses, trucks, etc.,

but also in electronics or for stationary use in construction.

The main manufacturers of lithium-ion batteries,

the most common in the automotive industry,

are Japanese, Korean or Chinese.

The support of some countries to electric vehicles can also

consider potential synergies with upstream or downstream industries.

Upstream of the automotive industry,

countries with a lot of raw materials used to make electric vehicles

can be promoters of these vehicles.

China produces about 97% of rare-earth elements in the world.

Most of the lithium reserves are in developing countries

in South America, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina,

in the United States and in China.

And downstream of the automotive industry,

some countries transitioning toward electricity production

from renewable sources,

especially intermittent wind or photovoltaic power,

want to control all industries and services linked to vehicle recharging

to create synergies with their generation of renewable electricity.

The global market for the production of photovoltaic cells and panels

is dominated by actors from China, Taiwan, Japan,

Malaysia, Germany and the United States.

The main wind turbine manufacturers are Chinese, American,

Danish, German and Spanish.

The position of China when it comes to these industrial challenges

is very specific as it is the only actor

with a quickly-growing automotive industry,

an energy-storage industry using batteries,

significant resources of rare-earth elements and lithium

and an electric power industry

using wind turbines and photovoltaics.

To conclude,

electric vehicles can pose major industrial challenges

for countries with industries which are fit to produce them.

They may regalvanize declining automotive industries

in developed countries.

They may also help develop new industries,

especially regarding electricity storage using batteries.

And lastly, they may help countries to control integrated industries

upstream and/or downstream of their added-value chain.

The challenge for these countries

could be quantified in terms of job and national wealth creation.

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