Afin d’expliquer comment la mondialisation reconstruit les politiques publiques et les comportements sociaux nous étudions les échanges et interactions entre les acteurs politiques, économiques et sociaux -publics et privés, individuels et collectifs- et la façon dont ils redessinent les relations internationales. Ce cours prend sa source dans les approches sociologique et historique françaises des relations internationales. This course is also available in english version: www.coursera.org/learn/global-studies
La pluralité des évolutions démographiques
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En provenance du cours de Sciences Po
Espace mondial, une vision française des global studies
notes
À partir de la leçon
Les inégalités
Les principaux indicateurs économiques et sociaux montrent un monde inégal et instable.
Rencontrer les enseignants
Bertrand BadieProfessor
Marie-Françoise DurandProfessor
Let’s now move
to an other dimension of our problem,
it’s territory as the support of population.
And this is probably a very important factor
for understanding the transformation
of the global order by now.
Let’s have in mind that in 1800
they were only 1 billion of people in the world,
at the end of the fifties
we where at 3 billions of people,
but now world had 7 billions of people.
This transformation
is the major factor of instability
and is explaining why what was possible
in the 20th century is no more useful
and even meaningful now.
It explains also why politics
cannot be considered now
as it was at this time.
This is the new world and this new world
has some characteristic
that I propose to take now into account.
First, you know that,
but I think it’s very important to stress on,
half of the humanity
is located between Indus and Japan,
on a territory which is about the double
of the European territory.
That’s to say on this South and East Asia
one individual out of two is located
in this part of the world.
And in this part of the world the human density
was for a long time
a very strong rural density,
creating rural societies
in a way that we can’t imagine
through our European history
and now this rural density is moving to
a urban density with a real explosion,
a real proliferation of cities everywhere in Asia
and now also and more and more
in Latin America and in Africa.
In this part of the world 6 states,
6 countries have more than 100 million of inhabitant.
This demographic power is a new dimension
in the new geopolitics that we can’t ignore
from our European observation.
With this evolution,
with this transformation of the world population
we discover that old powers
will be secondary powers
if we compare with the new demographic powers.
In 2050 France will have
about 50% of the Ethiopian population,
and Iran will have about 120 million inhabitants.
You can imagine that in this world
who was shaped by Europe
and considered by Europe as its own creation,
the real capacity, demographic capacity
of the Asian world,
and after for the African world
will totally transform the main characteristics
of the global political balance.
Now another point has to be emphasized,
Africa is now 1/7 of the world population,
but in 2050 one individual,
one human been out of 4 will be an African.
We can imagine easily that in 2050
Africa will play a role which is quite different
from the role which is now
assigned to this continent.
Now I would like to stress 3 dimensions
of this global demography.
First one: ageing.
Second one: urbanization.
Third one: migration
One of the main parameters
of the global transformation
is ageing of one part of the world
but on the other hand
the increasing part of young people
in other parts of the world.
European and Japanese population is ageing,
this problem is a major problem,
especially in Japan,
in which we say that in 2030
if Japan wants to keep
the same level of active population,
it will have to host about 30% of migrant people.
This is a great transformation
for this kind of society.
But the economic future, the social future,
and even the political future of Europe
is also clearly conditioned
by this very concerning ageing population.
But in the same time
the growing young population
creates other problems especially of course
in developing countries.
Let’s take into account the case of Niger
this francophone African state,
in 2030, 74% of the population
will be less than 30 years old.
And this proportion will be 62 % for all the Africa,
when in Europe the proportion will be 29.
You see the gap and what it does mean.
Now, nowadays 200 million Africans
are between 15 and 24,
that’s to say for them no job,
a poor chance to get a job,
an employment and so
idleness may be violence
and may be even attracted
by the child soldiers status.
Another aspect would be the growth of middle class
wich is probably the one of the main parameter
of the transformation
of the social structures in the world.
Middle class is increasing strongly,
especially in the rising powers
Brazil, China, India and so on.
Now we consider that 3 billion people
are in the middle class in our present world.
They will be 5 billion in 2030.
This implies new values,
new kinds of consumption,
new social structures
and probably new
kind of political representation.
Now urbanization in the world
is a crucial dimension
of this demographic turmoil.
In 1975 only 3 towns in the world
had more than 10 million people.
In 2050 there will be 27 towns
which will count more than 10 million people.
In Africa, in 1960 that’s to say the time
of the independence and decolonization,
only 53 million people were leaving in towns.
Now there are more than 400 million
and 50% of them are leaving in slums.
Urbanization as I mentioned
is a crucial dimension of our topic,
for a very simple reason
which has been properly analyzed by Karl Deutsch.
That’s to say Deutsch points that abrupt
and massive urbanization
create an anarchical social mobilization,
and this anarchical social mobilization leads
to violence, to radicalism, to protest,
and obviously we observe that radical Islam
took roots in recently urbanized
part of the Muslim world.
Muslim brothers were created in the Nil delta
when Islamist revolution took place in Teheran
at the time when the city
counted about 10 million of people.
This new fundamentalism finds in urbanization
new networks for being involved
and being committed and these networks
are connected to the traditional societies
and so religion and a fundamental radical vision
of religion plays an important role.
Let’s turn now to migration,
which is probably the most disputed aspect
of the demographic problems of our present world.
A migrant is every people born abroad
and who is not the citizen of the hosting country.
UN report in 2000 indicated that migration
should be considered as a good,
because migration is playing
very positive functions.
First migration is balancing
ageing of developed societies.
Migration is also able
to take in charge rejected jobs.
Migration is also able
to cover social expensive social entrance and pensions.
Migration does not fit to the main points
of a common sense
which is broaded by the political rhetoric.
First, migration is not an invasion,
is not massive.
We know now that migration covers about
3% of the world population, only 3%,
and 50 years ago it was around 2 or 2,5%
that to say a very light change.
Of course in 1965 we counted about
75 million migrants,
now it’s around 200 million
because the global population has increased
but it is not this massive invasion
which was predicted by so many observers.
The second point
that we have to keep in mine
is that migration is a suffering.
First of all a suffering,
people who have to leave their village,
their family, their common social networks
and to go abroad to a country
which is not well known
where they will not be properly hosted,
and people who have to take a risk.
For instance during 2014,
only during one year,
3500 people died in Mediterranea
when trying to cross this sea
for joining Europe.
That is first of all a tragedy, a disaster
for those who try to do that.
Third point, migration is also
a normality in a global world.
In a global world migrant
is probably the future of humanity,
that’s to say we are in a world
which is more and more communicating,
which is more and more transnational.
And how would it be possible
to resist to this appeal
of migration created by the transformation
of the population in developed societies
and in developing societies.
Keep in mind that during the next 25 years
Italy will lost about 3 million people
in its active population
when Algeria will have 25 million more
in his active population.
How can an Algerian resist
to this appeal to this discrepancy?
Migration is also the main source
of hybridization of population,
we are now entering in a world in which ethnicity
is no more shaping the world order,
that’s to say in each nation state, in each territory,
we have hybridized population
and this hybridization
creates a new kind of society
in which more and more people
are depending on their hosting societies
but also on the society of their origin
and sometime also on the society of transit.
That’s to say this migration
is creating a new kind of humanity
in which more and more the origins
and the references are more and more diversified.
Migration create the condition
of a globalization of issues,
that’s to say with migration domestic issues
are less and less domestic
and more and more internationalized.
That’s to say for instance
and event in Middle East and event in Africa
is also becoming an event in Europe
through this migration
through this global network of people
through this new web
which is more and more structured
and more and more creating
new kind of social behavior.
That is modernity.
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