Let’s now move to an other dimension of our problem, it’s territory as the support of population. And this is probably a very important factor for understanding the transformation of the global order by now. Let’s have in mind that in 1800 they were only 1 billion of people in the world, at the end of the fifties we where at 3 billions of people, but now world had 7 billions of people. This transformation is the major factor of instability and is explaining why what was possible in the 20th century is no more useful and even meaningful now. It explains also why politics cannot be considered now as it was at this time. This is the new world and this new world has some characteristic that I propose to take now into account. First, you know that, but I think it’s very important to stress on, half of the humanity is located between Indus and Japan, on a territory which is about the double of the European territory. That’s to say on this South and East Asia one individual out of two is located in this part of the world. And in this part of the world the human density was for a long time a very strong rural density, creating rural societies in a way that we can’t imagine through our European history and now this rural density is moving to a urban density with a real explosion, a real proliferation of cities everywhere in Asia and now also and more and more in Latin America and in Africa. In this part of the world 6 states, 6 countries have more than 100 million of inhabitant. This demographic power is a new dimension in the new geopolitics that we can’t ignore from our European observation. With this evolution, with this transformation of the world population we discover that old powers will be secondary powers if we compare with the new demographic powers. In 2050 France will have about 50% of the Ethiopian population, and Iran will have about 120 million inhabitants. You can imagine that in this world who was shaped by Europe and considered by Europe as its own creation, the real capacity, demographic capacity of the Asian world, and after for the African world will totally transform the main characteristics of the global political balance. Now another point has to be emphasized, Africa is now 1/7 of the world population, but in 2050 one individual, one human been out of 4 will be an African. We can imagine easily that in 2050 Africa will play a role which is quite different from the role which is now assigned to this continent. Now I would like to stress 3 dimensions of this global demography. First one: ageing. Second one: urbanization. Third one: migration One of the main parameters of the global transformation is ageing of one part of the world but on the other hand the increasing part of young people in other parts of the world. European and Japanese population is ageing, this problem is a major problem, especially in Japan, in which we say that in 2030 if Japan wants to keep the same level of active population, it will have to host about 30% of migrant people. This is a great transformation for this kind of society. But the economic future, the social future, and even the political future of Europe is also clearly conditioned by this very concerning ageing population. But in the same time the growing young population creates other problems especially of course in developing countries. Let’s take into account the case of Niger this francophone African state, in 2030, 74% of the population will be less than 30 years old. And this proportion will be 62 % for all the Africa, when in Europe the proportion will be 29. You see the gap and what it does mean. Now, nowadays 200 million Africans are between 15 and 24, that’s to say for them no job, a poor chance to get a job, an employment and so idleness may be violence and may be even attracted by the child soldiers status. Another aspect would be the growth of middle class wich is probably the one of the main parameter of the transformation of the social structures in the world. Middle class is increasing strongly, especially in the rising powers Brazil, China, India and so on. Now we consider that 3 billion people are in the middle class in our present world. They will be 5 billion in 2030. This implies new values, new kinds of consumption, new social structures and probably new kind of political representation. Now urbanization in the world is a crucial dimension of this demographic turmoil. In 1975 only 3 towns in the world had more than 10 million people. In 2050 there will be 27 towns which will count more than 10 million people. In Africa, in 1960 that’s to say the time of the independence and decolonization, only 53 million people were leaving in towns. Now there are more than 400 million and 50% of them are leaving in slums. Urbanization as I mentioned is a crucial dimension of our topic, for a very simple reason which has been properly analyzed by Karl Deutsch. That’s to say Deutsch points that abrupt and massive urbanization create an anarchical social mobilization, and this anarchical social mobilization leads to violence, to radicalism, to protest, and obviously we observe that radical Islam took roots in recently urbanized part of the Muslim world. Muslim brothers were created in the Nil delta when Islamist revolution took place in Teheran at the time when the city counted about 10 million of people. This new fundamentalism finds in urbanization new networks for being involved and being committed and these networks are connected to the traditional societies and so religion and a fundamental radical vision of religion plays an important role. Let’s turn now to migration, which is probably the most disputed aspect of the demographic problems of our present world. A migrant is every people born abroad and who is not the citizen of the hosting country. UN report in 2000 indicated that migration should be considered as a good, because migration is playing very positive functions. First migration is balancing ageing of developed societies. Migration is also able to take in charge rejected jobs. Migration is also able to cover social expensive social entrance and pensions. Migration does not fit to the main points of a common sense which is broaded by the political rhetoric. First, migration is not an invasion, is not massive. We know now that migration covers about 3% of the world population, only 3%, and 50 years ago it was around 2 or 2,5% that to say a very light change. Of course in 1965 we counted about 75 million migrants, now it’s around 200 million because the global population has increased but it is not this massive invasion which was predicted by so many observers. The second point that we have to keep in mine is that migration is a suffering. First of all a suffering, people who have to leave their village, their family, their common social networks and to go abroad to a country which is not well known where they will not be properly hosted, and people who have to take a risk. For instance during 2014, only during one year, 3500 people died in Mediterranea when trying to cross this sea for joining Europe. That is first of all a tragedy, a disaster for those who try to do that. Third point, migration is also a normality in a global world. In a global world migrant is probably the future of humanity, that’s to say we are in a world which is more and more communicating, which is more and more transnational. And how would it be possible to resist to this appeal of migration created by the transformation of the population in developed societies and in developing societies. Keep in mind that during the next 25 years Italy will lost about 3 million people in its active population when Algeria will have 25 million more in his active population. How can an Algerian resist to this appeal to this discrepancy? Migration is also the main source of hybridization of population, we are now entering in a world in which ethnicity is no more shaping the world order, that’s to say in each nation state, in each territory, we have hybridized population and this hybridization creates a new kind of society in which more and more people are depending on their hosting societies but also on the society of their origin and sometime also on the society of transit. That’s to say this migration is creating a new kind of humanity in which more and more the origins and the references are more and more diversified. Migration create the condition of a globalization of issues, that’s to say with migration domestic issues are less and less domestic and more and more internationalized. That’s to say for instance and event in Middle East and event in Africa is also becoming an event in Europe through this migration through this global network of people through this new web which is more and more structured and more and more creating new kind of social behavior. That is modernity.
