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La pluralité des évolutions démographiques

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Espace mondial, une vision française des global studies

4.6 (98 notes) | 9.7K étudiants inscrits

Afin d’expliquer comment la mondialisation reconstruit les politiques publiques et les comportements sociaux nous étudions les échanges et interactions entre les acteurs politiques, économiques et sociaux -publics et privés, individuels et collectifs- et la façon dont ils redessinent les relations internationales. Ce cours prend sa source dans les approches sociologique et historique françaises des relations internationales. This course is also available in english version: www.coursera.org/learn/global-studies

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4.6 (98 notes)

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YL

Nov 27, 2015

The prof is very approachable and the course is very interesting

OO

Apr 04, 2019

Je recommande fortement cet enseignement de grande qualité.

À partir de la leçon

Les inégalités

Les principaux indicateurs économiques et sociaux montrent un monde inégal et instable.

La diversité des territoires13:17

La pluralité des évolutions démographiques18:17

L’insécurité alimentaire13:24

Enseigné par

Bertrand Badie
Professor
Marie-Françoise Durand
Professor

Transcription

Let’s now move

to an other dimension of our problem,

it’s territory as the support of population.

And this is probably a very important factor

for understanding the transformation

of the global order by now.

Let’s have in mind that in 1800

they were only 1 billion of people in the world,

at the end of the fifties

we where at 3 billions of people,

but now world had 7 billions of people.

This transformation

is the major factor of instability

and is explaining why what was possible

in the 20th century is no more useful

and even meaningful now.

It explains also why politics

cannot be considered now

as it was at this time.

This is the new world and this new world

has some characteristic

that I propose to take now into account.

First, you know that,

but I think it’s very important to stress on,

half of the humanity

is located between Indus and Japan,

on a territory which is about the double

of the European territory.

That’s to say on this South and East Asia

one individual out of two is located

in this part of the world.

And in this part of the world the human density

was for a long time

a very strong rural density,

creating rural societies

in a way that we can’t imagine

through our European history

and now this rural density is moving to

a urban density with a real explosion,

a real proliferation of cities everywhere in Asia

and now also and more and more

in Latin America and in Africa.

In this part of the world 6 states,

6 countries have more than 100 million of inhabitant.

This demographic power is a new dimension

in the new geopolitics that we can’t ignore

from our European observation.

With this evolution,

with this transformation of the world population

we discover that old powers

will be secondary powers

if we compare with the new demographic powers.

In 2050 France will have

about 50% of the Ethiopian population,

and Iran will have about 120 million inhabitants.

You can imagine that in this world

who was shaped by Europe

and considered by Europe as its own creation,

the real capacity, demographic capacity

of the Asian world,

and after for the African world

will totally transform the main characteristics

of the global political balance.

Now another point has to be emphasized,

Africa is now 1/7 of the world population,

but in 2050 one individual,

one human been out of 4 will be an African.

We can imagine easily that in 2050

Africa will play a role which is quite different

from the role which is now

assigned to this continent.

Now I would like to stress 3 dimensions

of this global demography.

First one: ageing.

Second one: urbanization.

Third one: migration

One of the main parameters

of the global transformation

is ageing of one part of the world

but on the other hand

the increasing part of young people

in other parts of the world.

European and Japanese population is ageing,

this problem is a major problem,

especially in Japan,

in which we say that in 2030

if Japan wants to keep

the same level of active population,

it will have to host about 30% of migrant people.

This is a great transformation

for this kind of society.

But the economic future, the social future,

and even the political future of Europe

is also clearly conditioned

by this very concerning ageing population.

But in the same time

the growing young population

creates other problems especially of course

in developing countries.

Let’s take into account the case of Niger

this francophone African state,

in 2030, 74% of the population

will be less than 30 years old.

And this proportion will be 62 % for all the Africa,

when in Europe the proportion will be 29.

You see the gap and what it does mean.

Now, nowadays 200 million Africans

are between 15 and 24,

that’s to say for them no job,

a poor chance to get a job,

an employment and so

idleness may be violence

and may be even attracted

by the child soldiers status.

Another aspect would be the growth of middle class

wich is probably the one of the main parameter

of the transformation

of the social structures in the world.

Middle class is increasing strongly,

especially in the rising powers

Brazil, China, India and so on.

Now we consider that 3 billion people

are in the middle class in our present world.

They will be 5 billion in 2030.

This implies new values,

new kinds of consumption,

new social structures

and probably new

kind of political representation.

Now urbanization in the world

is a crucial dimension

of this demographic turmoil.

In 1975 only 3 towns in the world

had more than 10 million people.

In 2050 there will be 27 towns

which will count more than 10 million people.

In Africa, in 1960 that’s to say the time

of the independence and decolonization,

only 53 million people were leaving in towns.

Now there are more than 400 million

and 50% of them are leaving in slums.

Urbanization as I mentioned

is a crucial dimension of our topic,

for a very simple reason

which has been properly analyzed by Karl Deutsch.

That’s to say Deutsch points that abrupt

and massive urbanization

create an anarchical social mobilization,

and this anarchical social mobilization leads

to violence, to radicalism, to protest,

and obviously we observe that radical Islam

took roots in recently urbanized

part of the Muslim world.

Muslim brothers were created in the Nil delta

when Islamist revolution took place in Teheran

at the time when the city

counted about 10 million of people.

This new fundamentalism finds in urbanization

new networks for being involved

and being committed and these networks

are connected to the traditional societies

and so religion and a fundamental radical vision

of religion plays an important role.

Let’s turn now to migration,

which is probably the most disputed aspect

of the demographic problems of our present world.

A migrant is every people born abroad

and who is not the citizen of the hosting country.

UN report in 2000 indicated that migration

should be considered as a good,

because migration is playing

very positive functions.

First migration is balancing

ageing of developed societies.

Migration is also able

to take in charge rejected jobs.

Migration is also able

to cover social expensive social entrance and pensions.

Migration does not fit to the main points

of a common sense

which is broaded by the political rhetoric.

First, migration is not an invasion,

is not massive.

We know now that migration covers about

3% of the world population, only 3%,

and 50 years ago it was around 2 or 2,5%

that to say a very light change.

Of course in 1965 we counted about

75 million migrants,

now it’s around 200 million

because the global population has increased

but it is not this massive invasion

which was predicted by so many observers.

The second point

that we have to keep in mine

is that migration is a suffering.

First of all a suffering,

people who have to leave their village,

their family, their common social networks

and to go abroad to a country

which is not well known

where they will not be properly hosted,

and people who have to take a risk.

For instance during 2014,

only during one year,

3500 people died in Mediterranea

when trying to cross this sea

for joining Europe.

That is first of all a tragedy, a disaster

for those who try to do that.

Third point, migration is also

a normality in a global world.

In a global world migrant

is probably the future of humanity,

that’s to say we are in a world

which is more and more communicating,

which is more and more transnational.

And how would it be possible

to resist to this appeal

of migration created by the transformation

of the population in developed societies

and in developing societies.

Keep in mind that during the next 25 years

Italy will lost about 3 million people

in its active population

when Algeria will have 25 million more

in his active population.

How can an Algerian resist

to this appeal to this discrepancy?

Migration is also the main source

of hybridization of population,

we are now entering in a world in which ethnicity

is no more shaping the world order,

that’s to say in each nation state, in each territory,

we have hybridized population

and this hybridization

creates a new kind of society

in which more and more people

are depending on their hosting societies

but also on the society of their origin

and sometime also on the society of transit.

That’s to say this migration

is creating a new kind of humanity

in which more and more the origins

and the references are more and more diversified.

Migration create the condition

of a globalization of issues,

that’s to say with migration domestic issues

are less and less domestic

and more and more internationalized.

That’s to say for instance

and event in Middle East and event in Africa

is also becoming an event in Europe

through this migration

through this global network of people

through this new web

which is more and more structured

and more and more creating

new kind of social behavior.

That is modernity.

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