Learn about diverse and integrated markets for primary energy, and the essential considerations driving business leaders and policy makers in development of global energy resources.
Conventional Reserves
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En provenance du cours de University of Colorado System
Fundamentals of Global Energy Business
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Energy Supplies and Market Allocations
A broad range of primary resources are used to satisfy our need for energy. Accessing these resources depends on many factors, including available technologies and skills, and a number of political factors. We will address these factors as well as issues and trends in energy supply.
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Michael J. OrlandoLecturer
Global Energy Management, Business School
So let's turn to some charts on coal.
And consider the situation of coal reserves.
So this chart illustrates the distribution of coal reserves around the globe.
These charts were taken from the
British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy.
Which they, they publish I think on an annual basis.
A number of the major oil companies publish
very valuable resources for understanding global energy supply.
So we're going to take a look throughout today's lecture
at a few of these charts provided by BP.
first, the, what you notice is that the
bulk of coal reserves are located in three areas.
Okay.
North America, the Asia Pacific region, and Europe and Eurasia.
Each of these areas contains roughly a third of global proved coal reserves.
Okay, next, notice that reserves have actually shrunk
over the past ten years, which is somewhat interesting.
Now it might be interesting to ask why exactly.
With these, reserve with the reserve base have fallen
over this past, this past period because what we anticipate
is even though we're, we might think that reserves are
always going to fall, in fact, the companies that are producing.
Which is actually consuming some of the existing reserves.
They are also all the time exploring and looking for new reserves.
So, typically, you see reserve additions throughout time, as well as production.
But, it is interesting to go through
a period where reserves have actually shrunk.
You see, they actually increased from '92
to 2002, and actually declined more recently.
So, it's interesting to ask, why?
Because you might wonder, why didn't we go out and continue to find more?
Did coal prices decline, so it's no more, no
longer economically justified to add to the reserve base?
Did costs increase?
Maybe that's what affected the reserve base.
What exactly is driving this, and actually what I'd like you to do is take up this
question on the discussion board, and consider taking
on this question for our case assignment which is
which an assignment that I will provide at the end of this week.
That you'll be required to do prior to week three.
So so I'm not going to spend too much more time on
explaining that, but I do think that's a very interesting recent development.
Finally, one last thing is, notice how
global shares of reserves have evolved over time.
We have a decrease in the share of reserves from Europe and Eurasia.
And an increase.
So you have this decline here, okay?
But you have an increase in reserves coming from
North America and the Asia Pacific region.
Okay?
So we have this large increase here.
At least fractionally in an increase, while
we have a decline in Europe near Asia.
So I think those are some of the interesting features to
take away from our, little glimpse at the state of coal reserves.
So next, I'd like to look at oil.
And, you know, the first thing that I find useful is just
search around on line and, and take a look at some maps.
This map illustrates, it actually sizes
countries in proportion to their oil reserves.
Now, it's a little bit dated, but just I
as a visual representation of where, where reserves have
been, I think it's interesting to take a quick
glance at this and you see some, you know.
Some of the obvious stuff here.
You know, here in the Middle East,
there's really the vast bulk of global reserves.
Okay?
In North America, which consumes lots of oil.
Don't really have all that many reserves, in fact in
the Americas, that's really Venezuela that pops out as most significant.
Russia we think of as a pretty large oil producing nation, really
doesn't pop out that enormously, and in this visual.
So I think that's kind of interesting and illustrative.
But let's take a look at some more recent data on oil.
So here we have distribution of proved oil reserves
and how it's evolved over the last 20 years.
We take a closer look at these.
We see unsurprisingly, again in here, that the bulk is located in the Middle East.
[BLANK_AUDIO]
Okay.
Followed by the Americas.
So if you look at the Middle East and the
Americas, you know, makes up very
significant fraction of global oil reserves.
[BLANK_AUDIO]
Okay.
The greatest changes in shares are actually is actually
the decline I guess, in the share in the Middle East.
Not really because Middle East production is declining.
But because, you know, other pre-, I'm sorry,
reserves not that the reserves are declining dramatically,
but it's really the reserves that are being
added in other countries at a very rapid pace.
So even though we see this decline in shares, actually
overall, production has grown so dramatically over the last 20
years that all areas have actually added to their reserve base.
So reserves have grown, I should say, so dramatically over the
past 20 years, all areas have added to their reserve base.
Taking a look at natural gas reserves, we notice
what we see is that shares of reserves in the Middle East, Europe, and Eurasia have
grown from about two thirds to three quarters over the past 20 years.
Okay, so you can see that those two wages basically okay but reserves have grown so
dramatically, natural gas reserves have grown so dramatically,
that they actually on a nominal basis have increased.
For all regions.
So we see a similar with oil reserves, just a dramatic
increase in the global magnitude of natural
gas understood to be commercially recoverable out of the ground.
Now, I think it's important to take note of
a particular type of gas reserve and that is
shale gas.
And so what I want to do is just conclude this little section by talking just a bit
about shale gas basins because shale, shale gas, most of
the reserves on the previous slide reflect natural gas from conventional reservoirs.
You know, conventional sandstone reservoirs, let's say that
we've been sort of chasing for, for decades.
But, the shale gas revolution is less than a decade old, for the most part.
And what you notice on this map is just where those shale gas
resources are located as depicted by these known basins around the world.
Importantly, we see quite a bit of
resource in North America, Eurasia, maybe South America.
China, okay?
Also importantly we don't see that much of a resource in the Middle East here.
Which is where a lot of hydrocarbons traditionally have been developed.
So, you know if you were thinking about how the prior chart is going to evolve and
change over the short term, you might kind of
anticipate that geographically we could see some additions from these areas.
Kind of outpace the additions in coming
from the Middle East, the reserve additions.
So I encourage you to read a bit about
shale gas resources and just how much things have
changed say, from, I don't know, the middle to
the latter part of the last decade to now.
This is one of the major transformational issues not only in.
And that petroleum sector, the hydrocarbon sector
that also for global energy more generally.
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