4.8

96 ratings

•

20 reviews

Duke University

À propos de ce cours

How to Reason Inductively
Think Again: How to Reason and Argue
Reasoning is important. This series of four short courses will teach you how to do it well. You will learn simple but vital rules to follow in thinking about any topic at all and common and tempting mistakes to avoid in reasoning. We will discuss how to identify, analyze, and evaluate arguments by other people (including politicians, used car salesmen, and teachers) and how to construct arguments of your own in order to help you decide what to believe or what to do. These skills will be useful in dealing with whatever matters most to you.
Courses at a Glance:
All four courses in this series are offered through sessions which run every four weeks. We suggest sticking to the weekly schedule to the best of your ability. If for whatever reason you fall behind, feel free to re-enroll in the next session.We also suggest that you start each course close to the beginning of a month in order to increase the number of peers in the discussion forums who are working on the same material as you are. While each course can be taken independently, we suggest you take the four courses in order.
Course 1 - Think Again I: How to Understand Arguments
Course 2 - Think Again II: How to Reason Deductively
Course 3 - Think Again III: How to Reason Inductively
Course 4 - Think Again IV: How to Avoid Fallacies
About This Course in the Series:
Think Again: How to Reason Inductively
Want to solve a murder mystery? What caused your computer to fail? Who can you trust in your everyday life? In this course, you will learn what distinguishes inductive arguments from deductive arguments and then how to analyze and assess five common forms of inductive arguments: generalizations from samples, applications of generalizations, inference to the best explanation, arguments from analogy, and causal reasoning. The course closes by showing how probability can be used to help us make decisions of all sorts.
Suggested Readings
Students who want more detailed explanations or additional exercises or who want to explore these topics in more depth should consult Understanding Arguments: An Introduction to Informal Logic, Ninth Edition, Concise, Chapters 8-12, by Walter Sinnott-Armstrong and Robert Fogelin.
Course Format
Each week will be divided into multiple video segments that can be viewed separately or in groups. There will be short ungraded quizzes after each segment (to check comprehension) and a longer graded quiz at the end of the course.

Section

<p>Welcome to <b>Think Again: How to Reason Inductively</b>! This course is the third in a series of four courses jointly titled <em>Think Again: How to Reason and Argue</em>. We are excited that you are taking this course, and we hope that you will take all four courses in the series, because there is a great deal of important material to learn.</p><p>In the series as a whole, you learn how to analyze and evaluate arguments and how to avoid common mistakes in reasoning. These important skills will be useful to you in deciding what to believe and what to do in all areas of your life. </p><p>The first part of this course introduces the series and the course. It also clarifies some peculiarities you may find with this course. We encourage you to watch the "<b>Introduction to the Course</b>" video first as it will help you learn more from the materials that come later. </p>...

1 video (Total 5 min), 1 reading

Course Logistics (Start Here)10m

<p><b>CONTENT</b>: This week begins by distinguishing inductive arguments from deductive arguments. Then we discuss four common forms of inductive argument: generalizations from samples (such as in political polls), applications of generalizations to particular cases (such as in predicting weather on a certain day), inferences to the best explanation (such as in using evidence to determine who committed a crime), and arguments from analogy (such as in identifying the use of one archaeological artifact by comparing it to other artifacts). We will expose the most common mistakes in these kinds of reasoning. Some of the "lectures" this week are a bit experimental (and perhaps weird!), as you will see. We hope that you enjoy them.<p><b>LEARNING OUTCOMES</b>: By the end of this week's material you will be able to do:<ul> <li>distinguish inductive from deductive arguments</li> <li>classify inductive arguments into five kinds</li> <li>identify and evaluate arguments that generalize from samples</li><li>identify and evaluate arguments that apply generalizations to cases</li><li>identify and evaluate inferences to the best explanation by applying standards that good explanations must meet</li><li>identify and evaluate arguments from analogy</li></ul></p><p><b>OPTIONAL READING</b>: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these kinds of inductive arguments, we recommend <em>Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition</em>, Chapters 8 and 9.</p>...

9 videos (Total 129 min), 8 quizzes

Generalizations from Samples9m

When are Generalizations Strong?20m

Applying Generalizations17m

Another Example of Applying Generalizations (Optional)16m

Inference to the Best Explanation8m

Which Explanation Is Best?14m

A Student Example of Inference to the Best Explanation8m

Arguments from Analogy18m

What Is Induction?24m

Generalizations from Samples10m

When are Generalizations Strong?24m

Applying Generalizations24m

Inference to the Best Explanation20m

Which Explanation Is Best?20m

A Student Example: Inference to the Best Explanation6m

Arguments from Analogy30m

Section

<p><b>CONTENT</b>: This module will focus on how to decide what causes what. Students will learn how to distinguish necessary conditions from sufficient conditions and how to use data to test hypotheses about what is and what is not a necessary condition or a sufficient condition. Then we will distinguish causation from correlation (or concomitant variation) and explain the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc. It is sad that some diners had to die to make this lesson possible, as you will see.</p>
<p><b>LEARNING OUTCOMES</b>: By the end of this week’s material you will be able to do:
<ul>
<li> analyze causal reasoning</li>
<li>distinguish necessary from sufficient conditions</li>
<li>determine what is necessary or sufficient for what</li>
<li>separate causation from correlation</li>
</ul>
</p>
<p><b>OPTIONAL READING</b>: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these topics, we recommend <em>Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition</em>, Chapter 10.</p>
...

9 videos (Total 100 min), 8 quizzes

Negative Sufficient Condition Tests9m

Positive Sufficient Condition Tests10m

Negative Necessary Condition Tests4m

Positive Necessary Condition Tests6m

Complex Conditions11m

Correlation Versus Causation20m

Causal Fallacies5m

A Student Example: Causal Reasoning About Chocolate15m

Causal Reasoning24m

Negative Sufficient Condition Tests22m

Positive Sufficient Condition Tests6m

Negative Necessary Condition Tests20m

Positive Necessary Condition Tests4m

Complex Conditions18m

Correlation Versus Causation14m

Causal Fallacies8m

Section

<p><b>CONTENT</b>: This week will cover chance and choice—in other words, probability and decision making. Probability is useful for measuring the strength of inductive arguments and also for deciding what to believe and what to do. You will learn about the nature and kinds of probability along with four simple rules for calculating probabilities. An optional honors lecture will then explain Bayes’ theorem and the common mistake of overlooking the base rate. Next we will use probabilities to evaluate decisions by figuring their expected financial value and contrasting financial value with overall value. </p><p><b>LEARNING OUTCOMES</b>: By the end of this week’s material, you will be able to do: <ul><li> solve some classic paradoxes of probability</li><li>apply simple rules of probability</li><li>use Bayes’ theorem to calculate conditional probabilities</li><li>avoid fallacies of probability</li><li>apply probabilities to calculate expected financial values</li><li>distinguish financial value from overall value</li><li>use simple rules to aid decisions under uncertainty</li></ul></p><p><b>OPTIONAL READING</b>: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these topics, we recommend<em> Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition</em>, Chapters 11 and 12 ...

10 videos (Total 117 min), 9 quizzes

What Is Probability?8m

Negation2m

Conjunction12m

Disjunction9m

Series6m

Bayes Theorem (Optional)28m

Expected Financial Value13m

Expected Overall Value10m

The Sausage Argument: A Student Argument About Decision Making13m

Why Probability Matters8m

What Is Probability?18m

Negation14m

Conjunction30m

Disjunction32m

Series8m

Bayes Theorem (Optional)42m

Expected Financial Value18m

Expected Overall Value10m

Section

<p>This week gives you time to catch up and review, because we realize that the previous weeks include a great deal of challenging material. It will also be provide enough time to take the final quiz as often as you want, with different questions each time. </p><p>We explain the answers in each exam so that you can learn more and do better when you try the exam again. You may take the quiz as many times as you want in order to learn more and do better, with different questions each time. You will be able to retake the quiz three times every eight hours. You might not need to take more than one version of the exam if you do well enough on your first try. That is up to you. However many versions you take, we hope that all of the exams will provide additional learning experiences. </p>...

1 quiz

Final Quiz0m

4.8

By NB•Sep 15th 2017

Excellent Course and instructors. I feel proud and lucky to haven taken open my way of thinking and i think It will make people smart

By DG•Dec 19th 2017

The professor is fun. He provide different examples to make his point clear and interesting. I enjoy his lessons very mucn!

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What is the coolest thing I'll learn if I take this class?

How to solve a murder mystery.

What are people saying about this class?

“I'd like to thank both professors for the course. It was fun, instructive, and I loved the input from people from all over the world, with their different views and backgrounds.”

“Somewhere in the first couple weeks of the course, I was ruminating over some concept or perhaps over one of the homework exercises and suddenly it occurred to me, "'Is this what thinking is?" Just to clarify, I come from a thinking family and have thought a lot about various concepts and issues throughout my life and career...but somehow I realized that, even though I seemed to be thinking all the time, I hadn't been doing this type of thinking for quite some time...so, thanks!”

“The rapport between Dr. Sinott-Armstrong and Dr. Neta and their senses of humor made the lectures engaging and enjoyable. Their passion for the subject was apparent and they were patient and thorough in their explanations.”

Will I receive a transcript from Duke University for completing this course?

No. Completion of a Coursera course does not earn you academic credit from Duke; therefore, Duke is not able to provide you with a university transcript. However, your electronic Certificate will be added to your Accomplishments page - from there, you can print your Certificate or add it to your LinkedIn profile.

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